http://www.smarteranalyst.com/2014/11/13/h-c-wainwright-reiterates-buy-on-threshold-pharmaceuticals-sees-264-upside-for-stock/

In a research note released yesterday, H.C. Wainwright analyst Andrew Fein reiterated a Buy rating on Threshold Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:THLD) with a $12 price target which represents a 264% upside from where the stock is currently trading.
Fein wrote, “Although the sarcoma program is scheduled to take a first shot at clinical and commercial success (data in 1Q16), it is the close-following pancreatic cancer program (data later in 2016) that unlocks greater value ($250M vs. $1.5B), while also in our view having even higher probability of success. Importantly, while THLD and its partner Merck continue to invest on the wide potential of TH-302 beyond STS and PC, we believe that the current trading levels of THLD shares offer a discount even to a base scenario of success consisting of: (1) launch of TH-302 in the STS and PC indications only; (2) conservative probability of success (60% for STS, 75% for PC); and (3) commercialization of TH-302 by Merck KGaA and revenues to THLD based on a royalty model only. Success in STS and/or PC, expansion into additional indications (such as NSCLC, GBM, or MM), and election by THLD to exercise its option to co-commercialize TH-302 with Merck KGaA in the US, would provide significant upside to our estimates and price target.“

No me explico a que vien esto ahora …

http://www.analystratings.com/2014/11/12/brean-capital-maintains-na-threshold-pharmaceuticals-shares-sees-378-upside-stock/

In a research report sent to investors today, Brean Capital analyst Jonathan Aschoffmaintained a NA rating on Threshold Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:THLD) with a price target of $15.00, which represents a potential upside of 377.7% from where the stock is currently trading.

Aschoff said, “We are dropping coverage of Threshold Pharmaceuticals, Inc. We are not optimistic about the prospects for the Phase 3 STS trial with TH-302 because a similar drug, Ziopharm’s (ZIOP; Not Rated) palifosfamide, failed in its Phase 3 STS trial in 1Q13. We have decided to allocate our research resources toward other companies that we view as having more investable catalysts. As such, our target price and rating for THLD should not be relied upon hereafter.”

FAST TRACK
Threshold Pharmaceuticals Receives FDA Fast Track Designation for TH-302 for the Treatment of Previously Untreated Patients With Metastatic or Locally Advanced Unresectable Soft Tissue Sarcoma

http://investor.thresholdpharm.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=882076

Cuando una farma tiene fundamentales sólidos o como mínimo, con credibilidad, el cash en el banco se factoriza a 2x-3x como norma. Luego habria que añadirle, claro esta, la valoracion especulativa de su pipeline, sus partners, sus patentes, etc.
Otra cosa muy típica en farmas es hacerle un RESET a su valoración especulativa descontando así, por adelantado, un riesgo del 100% o fracaso de su ciencia , donde los cortos tienden a esteblecer su nivel de cierre. Quedando así solo la valoración por cash, nos vemos en un market cap de entre 136 y 204 mill $, a tenor de esos 68 kilos en cash declarados en el ultimo report trimestral.

Los 136 serian los 2,2$ de la vela del primeros de febrero 2012 cuando se dio a conocer el acuerdo con Merck.
En cualquier caso el precio esta rondando ese 2x-3x que comentaba, buena zona para ir haciendo día a día el combo dip+cierre de cortos, que los que se levantaron en Septiembre se contaron por millones, varios de ellos, malditos todos ellos.

En fin, hoy estoy tecleador. Quizás todo esto no sea nada.

Viendo su gráfica, ya muy comentada por cierto, vuelvo a repetir que no debe perder la base de ese gran canal, tocado «al tic» hace cuatro semanas, cuando hizo mínimos temporales en 2’82; Se me ocurre que pudiera ir a tantear ese nivel, formar un «doble mínimo» con el citado, y volver sobre sus pasos para deleitarnos con una brillante escalada (cual cabra!!). ¿Porqué no?.

Pero no debe perder en cualquier caso, el suelo de ese canal, aunque pueda tantear el mismo unos centavos mas abajo, debido al tiempo transcurrido desde hace esas semanas………..

GRÁFICO.

Threshold Pharmaceuticals’ Partner Merck KGaA, Darmstadt, Germany, Completes Target Enrollment in the TH-302 Phase 3 MAESTRO Study in Patients With Locally Advanced or Metastatic Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma

http://boardvote.com/symbol/THLD/communique/799949

http://seekingalpha.com/pr/11529685-threshold-pharmaceuticals-reports-third-quarter-2014-financial-and-operational-results?app=n